Until just recently, the upcoming German federal election on September 26, which will determine Angela Merkel’s successor, if looked at from an American perspective, seemed kind of dull and uninteresting. But that’s because so many Americans are conditioned to seeing the process of choosing a national leader every four years as a time when they are expected to decide which man or woman trying to get the job has the most charisma. And by that I mean the ability to stand out in some way, as the guy you’d most like to have a beer with, the person most adept at holding their own in a debate, or the person who can raise the most money. Or, as was the case in the 2016 election, the guy most adept at lying to your face and getting you to believe his outsider-to-Washington status was just what the doctor ordered.
I have the impression – and I speak with no expertise here – that the fact that Germans don’t elect their leaders directly, but vote for parties instead, plays a role in downplaying charisma, or the personal characteristics of a given candidate. In any case, charisma, or the lack of it, is not a deal-breaker.
At the same time, if you tune in to the now very heated campaign discussions, there is plenty of talk about whether such-and-such a candidate is “weak” or “trustworthy,” so I could be on the wrong track.
That said, the German political scene is no different from any other. There is an in-built conflict between those who want to focus on the personal strengths of individual candidates and those who want to talk policy. And to understand the German scene, you have to be able to follow the speculation over coalition building, since that’s the point where the rubber meets the road. It’s not enough to say Germans don’t vote for individuals but for parties and the parties then choose their leaders. You have to recognize that with so many political parties it’s difficult for any one of them to get a majority, so forming coalitions is a must. And issues – pensions, childcare, rent control, the environment, relations with the U.S. and Russia, and all the rest, take on greater importance than personalities. Or so it seems to me.
As in any modern capitalist democracy, the parties fall along the left to right (liberal to conservative) spectrum. There are six of them that are consequential at the moment. They are, to give a quick-and-simple rundown, from left to center:
1. “The Left” – originally the successor party to the East German SED – the Social Unity Party – and saddled with that history. Most Germans find them “too red – i.e., they carry the stink, rightly or wrongly (I think wrongly) of the sinister and brutal nature of the authoritarian DDR.
2. The SPD – The German Socialist Party, Germany’s oldest and most long-lasting political party, survivor of both Nazi and Communist regimes, in which they were often the most substantial opposition. Germany’s original “labour party.”
3. Alliance 90/The Greens – originally centered around environmental issues, these two parties have merged. They are officially designated as “Alliance 90/The Greens” but are referred to informally simply as “Die Grünen” - “The Greens.” Now often associated with the urban elite, or “lifestyle lefties.”
And from center to right:
4. The CDU/CSU – the Union Parties – a permanent coalition of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria and the Christian Democratic Union in the other fifteen German states. Pro-EU.
5. The FDP – The Free Democrat Party – a libertarian party fiscally right of center; socially often left of center
6. The AfD - а recently-formed outsider party (which the other five refuse to work with) – the “Alternative Party for Germany” – formed as a new nationalist (anti-EU, anti-globalization,) anti-immigrant party. Germany's "none-of-the-above"/"you're all a pack of cards"/Tea Party analogue
To get a general idea of where the parties stand in ideological terms, the following graph may be useful:
Angela Merkel ran the CDU, and the country, for the last sixteen years. Since she went public with her intention to retire, there has been a scramble to replace her, first within the Union Parties themselves, between Armin Laschet of the CDU and Markus Söder of the CSU, in which Laschet has come out on top, and between Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, who, despite political inexperience, seemed for a while to be the front-runner, and Olaf Scholz, of the SDP (Socialists), who has taken everybody by surprise by coming out ahead of the others in the most recent polls. There is widespread support for the view that Scholz leads not so much for his own positive reasons as for the lack of popular enthusiasm for either Baerbock or Laschet. On the other hand, many others insist that it is Scholz who is responsible for the sudden rise in popularity of the socialists, who have been out of power for twenty years. Pick your arm-chair expert to listen to.
Because Scholz has a clear lead at the moment – but remember, the situation is more volatile than it has been in years and changes practically from day to day – much discussion now centers around whom he would form coalitions with. At present, support for the six political parties, is as follows:
SPD – 25%
CDU/CSU – 21%
Greens – 17%
FDP – 13%
The Left – 8%
AfD – 6%
And I should point out that Germans use a “color shorthand” when referring to their parties, I suppose because it’s quicker and easier to say “red-red-green” than “The Left-the SDP-the Greens. Or “Jamaica (i.e., the colors of the Jamaican flag – black, yellow and green) rather than “The Union Parties, the FDP and the Greens,” although there's something remarkably German-nerdy about making everybody go out and learn to recognize the flags of Jamaica, Kenya and Afghanistan. Nerdy, but efficient (and don't you go off now and tell everybody I'm showing my weakness for surrendering to national stereotypes.)
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| Flag of the nation of Jamaica |
The color designations, and the current national support for each of the parties at present, is as follows:
Red - SPD – 25%
Black - CDU/CSU – 21%
Green - Greens – 17%
Yellow -- FDP – 13%
Magenta – The Left – 8% - When being distinguished from the SPD - on a chart, for example; otherwise it is commonly lumped together with the SPD as “the other red party.” This means that when you want to put “The Left” and “The Socialists” and “The Greens” together, you refer to the coalition as a “a red-red-green coalition.” I know, confusing as hell, and takes some getting used to.
Blue - AfD – 6%
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| Flag of the nation of Kenya |
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| Flag of the nation of Afghanistan |
and the “Traffic Light Coalition,” i.e., red (SPD), yellow (FDP) and green (Alliance 90/Greens).
OK. That’s it for an introduction. Hope this helps to make sense of some of the concepts being thrown around in discussions of the way Germany has for choosing its next chancellor.
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